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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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